That seems logical..but can one define the exact point in time when people will start to come over to the next gen? Not really, the way I see it, is that people can upgrade at any time, there's always new machines being bought every week and month. I see your point that it will take time to rebuild the player base which was created on the XB360 and PS3 but consoles are always being sold every month which is why I think numbers will gradually increase over the year. Maybe not massively but...theres still a chance. Besides whatever the player count is currently that's still plenty to find and play games through online multiplayer. It's not like any modes have 0 players, there is a large enough community to account for all the modes. Sure it's even better to have numbers like the last gen consoles but it's not like we desperately NEED players. Whenever they come, that's cool. ^_^
I somewhat disagree with the current number being fine. In most playlists, at least the more popular ones, the number is perfectly fine, but in less popular ones like hunted heavy duty and some hardcore modes you are stuck in the same lobby playing with the same people. In my opinion, I think 100k+ would be ideal.
I guess that can be an issue but my point was with the current player base it is enough to find games for any modes.
The X1 one has had 60+ for at least a week now. It all depends on the time you get on or check.
PS4 numbers will be slightly higher because the PS4 has released in many more countries.